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논문 리스트

2014
전남 무안 해안 대수층에서의 지하수위 예측을 위한 자기교차회귀모형 구축 Development of the Autoregressive and Cross-Regressive Model for Groundwater Level Prediction at Muan Coastal Aquifer in Korea
한국지하수토양환경학회
여인욱
논문정보
Publisher
지하수토양환경
Issue Date
2014-12-01
Keywords
-
Citation
-
Source
-
Journal Title
-
Volume
19
Number
4
Start Page
23
End Page
30
DOI
ISSN
15986438
Abstract
Coastal aquifer in Muan, Jeonnam, has experienced heavy seawater intrusion caused by the extraction of a substantialamount of groundwater for the agricultural purpose throughout the year. It was observed that groundwater level droppedbelow sea level due to heavy pumping during a dry season, which could accelerate seawater intrusion. Therefore, waterlevel needs to be monitored and managed to prevent further seawater intrusion. The purpose of this study is to develop theautoregressive-cross-regressive (ARCR) models that can predict the present or future groundwater level using its ownprevious values and pumping events. The ARCR model with pumping and water level data of the proceeding five hours(i.e., the model order of five) predicted groundwater level better than that of the model orders of ten and twenty. This wascontrary to expectation that higher orders do increase the coefficient of determination (R2) as a measure of the model''sgoodness. It was found that the ARCR model with order five was found to make a good prediction of next 48 hourgroundwater levels after the start of pumping with R2 higher than 0.9.

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이름 소속
여인욱 지질환경과학과