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논문 리스트

2011
마코비안 도착과정을 이용한 축구경기 득점결과의 예측 Predicting the Score of a Soccer Match by Use of a Markovian Arrival Process
대한산업공학회
김남기
논문정보
Publisher
산업공학(IE Interfaces)
Issue Date
2011-12-01
Keywords
-
Citation
-
Source
-
Journal Title
-
Volume
24
Number
4
Start Page
323
End Page
329
DOI
ISSN
12250996
Abstract
We develop a stochastic model to predict the score of a soccer match. We describe the scoring process of the soccer match as a markovian arrival process (MAP). To do this, we define a two-state underlying Markov chain, in which the two states represent the offense and defense states of the two teams to play. Then, we derive the probability vector generating function of the final scores. Numerically inverting this generating function, we obtain the desired probability distribution of the scores. Sample numerical examples are given at the end to demonstrate how to utilize this result to predict the final score of the match.

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이름 소속
김남기 산업공학과