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논문 리스트

2008
Forecasting the Volatility of KOSPI 200 Using Data Mining Forecasting the Volatility of KOSPI 200 Using Data Mining
한국데이터정보과학회
박은식
논문정보
Publisher
한국데이터정보과학회지
Issue Date
2008-11-30
Keywords
-
Citation
-
Source
-
Journal Title
-
Volume
19
Number
4
Start Page
1305
End Page
1325
DOI
ISSN
12258547
Abstract
As index option markets grow recently, many analysts and investors become interested in forecasting the volatility of KOSPI 200 Index to achieve portfolio`s goal from the point of financial risk management and asset evaluation. To serve this purpose, we introduce NN and SVM integrated with other financial series models such as GARCH, EGARCH, and EWMA. Moreover, according to the empirical test, Integrating NN with GARCH or EWMA models improves prediction power in terms of the precision and the direction of the volatility of KOSPI 200 index. However, integrating SVM with financial series models doesn't improve greatly the prediction power. In summary, SVM-EGARCH was the best in terms of predicting the direction of the volatility and NN-GARCH was the best in terms of the prediction precision. We conclude with advantages of the integration process and the need for integrating models to enhance the prediction power.

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이름 소속
박은식 통계학과