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2023
Compressed Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Latecomer
사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원
김현호
논문정보
- Publisher
- 분석과 대안
- Issue Date
- 2023-06-30
- Keywords
- -
- Citation
- -
- Source
- -
- Journal Title
- -
- Volume
- 7
- Number
- 2
- Start Page
- 35
- End Page
- 77
- ISSN
- 2508822X
Abstract
This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulatio...
- 전남대학교
- KCI
- 분석과 대안
저자 정보
| 이름 | 소속 |
|---|---|
| 김현호 | 경제학부 |