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논문 리스트

2020
미국산 쇠고기 수입관세율 변화가 한육우 시장에 미치는 영향분석 An Analysis of the Impact of US Beef Import Tariff Rate Changes on the Korean Beef Cattle Market
한국유기농업학회
김인석 외 1명
논문정보
Publisher
한국유기농업학회지
Issue Date
2020-02-28
Keywords
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Citation
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Source
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Journal Title
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Volume
28
Number
1
Start Page
31
End Page
57
DOI
ISSN
12293571
Abstract
Korea-US FTA amendment became effective January 1, 2019 through several trade negotiations between the two countries. These amendments did not include changes in the agricultural sector. However, given the policy direction of the Trump administration, it is difficult to be certain that the existing Korea-US FTA on the agricultural sector will remain unchanged. This study examines the potential impact of changes in the US beef import tariff rates under the Korea-US FTA, which is progressively eliminated until 2026 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The modelling system is simulated with 100% decreases of tariff rates over 2020~2026 period and then compared to the baseline which is developed based on the current Korea?US FTA tariff rates. According to the scenario analyses results, 100% decreases of US beef tariff rate lowered Korean beef cattle production value up to 4.23%. Looking at this change in terms of absolute value rather than percentage, the total production value over 2020~2026 is expected to decrease by 815 billion won compared to Baseline. This reduction in production value in dynamic analysis is 67 billion won higher than the comparative static analysis.

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이름 소속
김인석 농업경제학과