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2014
미래 기후변화에 따른 가정 및 상업 부문 에너지수요 변화 추정
Estimation of Energy Use in Residential and Commercial Sectors Attributable to Future Climate Change
한국기상학회
논문정보
- Publisher
- 대기
- Issue Date
- 2014-12-01
- Keywords
- -
- Citation
- -
- Source
- -
- Journal Title
- -
- Volume
- 24
- Number
- 4
- Start Page
- 515
- End Page
- 522
- DOI
- ISSN
- 15983560
Abstract
In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residential
and commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on the
national energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimal
base temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated.
Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with a
temperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against the
energy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regression
model and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario.
The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a large
decrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is
anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling
but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.
- 전남대학교
- KCI
- 대기
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