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2016
기상 확률 모델 및 기상 민감도를 이용한 연중 주별 전력수요 예측에 관한 연구
Weekly Peak Load Forecasting Using Weather Stochastic Model and Weather Sensitivity
한국조명.전기설비학회
위영민, 민용기
논문정보
- Publisher
- 조명.전기설비학회논문지
- Issue Date
- 2016-05-01
- Keywords
- -
- Citation
- -
- Source
- -
- Journal Title
- -
- Volume
- 30
- Number
- 5
- Start Page
- 59
- End Page
- 65
- DOI
- ISSN
- 1229-4691
Abstract
Load forecasting is an essential component for operating and planning power systems. There are various prediction time horizons in accordance with applications. This paper proposes a forecasting model for mid-term load forecasting which is used for planning electricity supply and demand, electrical equipment maintenance schedule, and demand response programs. This paper presents weekly peak load forecasting method using time series and temperature sensitivity model with temperature stochastic modeling. Using Monte-Carlo simulation, the proposed method can also make probability distribution of weekly peak loads. The results of case studies show the effectiveness of the proposed load forecasting method.
- 광주대학교
- KCI
- 조명.전기설비학회논문지
저자 정보
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